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Executive Summary

E-commerce merchants with $1M+ in annual revenue face a growing problem: friendly fraud and chargeback abuse that costs them not just lost merchandise but also penalty fees when their chargeback ratios exceed 0.9%. Traditional fraud detection focuses on blocking transactions at checkout, but increasingly merchants need post-transaction monitoring to catch customers who complete purchases then file illegitimate disputes 30-90 days later, claiming they never received items or didn't authorize charges. This problem is accelerating at 15-20% annually as consumers learn to exploit dispute processes and as buy-now-pay-later and subscription models create longer fraud visibility windows. The smallest credible MVP would be a dashboard that integrates with Stripe, Shopify, or a major payment processor to flag high-risk customers based on post-purchase behavior patterns like multiple disputes across merchants, return abuse history, or suspicious account changes before filing chargebacks. You could start by analyzing transaction and dispute data to build risk scores, then alert merchants 1-2 weeks before the chargeback window closes so they can proactively submit compelling evidence or blacklist repeat abusers. An initial version priced at $200-500 monthly for mid-market merchants (handling 1,000-10,000 monthly orders) would provide clear ROI if it prevents even 5-10 chargebacks per month at $15-25 each in fees plus lost merchandise. This market is attractive now because payment networks are actively tightening enforcement, creating immediate pain that drives buying urgency. The $4.2B market sizing assumes 700,000 qualifying merchants spending an average of $6,000 annually on fraud tools and chargeback costs, which feels reasonable given that merchants in monitoring programs face $5,000-50,000 in penalty fees alone. Revenue potential scores 88/100 because you could credibly charge $3,000-10,000 annually per merchant at scale with expansion revenue from premium features like automated evidence submission or network-wide fraud intelligence sharing. Your first validation move should be interviewing 15-20 Shopify Plus or WooCommerce merchants currently in chargeback monitoring programs to confirm they would pay $300-500 monthly for early warning alerts. The likely GTM path runs through integration partnerships with payment processors or e-commerce platforms that can refer merchants hitting threshold warnings, plus targeted outreach to merchants with public chargeback issues. The biggest risk is that existing fraud platforms like Signifyd or Riskified already bundle post-transaction monitoring, leaving you to compete on price in a feature-parity game, so test whether merchants actually receive actionable post-transaction alerts from current tools or just pre-authorization screening.

Executive Summary

Post-transaction fraud monitoring for e-commerce chargeback prevention

Executive Summary

Post-transaction fraud monitoring for e-commerce chargeback prevention

Executive Summary

Market Validation

Market Opportunity

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