Executive Summary

Many mid-market merchants and their affiliate managers still rely on multi-week hold windows to protect against fraud, returns and attribution uncertainty, which ties up working capital and creates frequent clawback disputes that sour partner relationships. With roughly 500,000 mid-market merchants and an estimated addressable spend of $6.0B annually (500K x $12K ACV), settlement complexity is a measurable, costly pain point for a large slice of the market. You could build an API-first settlement platform that removes blanket hold windows by combining probabilistic risk scoring, real-time payout rails (ACH/RTP/card), automated reconciliation and configurable clawback rules tied to privacy-safe proof-of-performance. The product would offer adaptive payout timing, instant transfers, fraud and dispute automation, and an option for insurer- or reserve-backed early payouts to shift initial capital risk off the merchant. This is an attractive time to enter: the creator and affiliate economy is expanding, real-time payout capabilities reduce the operational need for conservative holds, and attribution/privacy shifts are pushing partners toward transparent financial settlements rather than opaque performance metrics—explaining a high market score (95/100) and strong revenue potential (90/100). Reducing cash friction can directly improve partner retention and lower dispute handling costs, creating a clear ROI story for pilots. To stand out you’ll need best-in-class risk models, deep integrations with commerce and attribution providers, and credible financial backstops such as insurer partnerships or pooled reserves—features many incumbents lack. The challenges are substantive: underwriting early payouts requires capital and regulatory work, fraud and chargeback exposure must be tightly controlled, and adoption will hinge on clear, demonstrable ROI from initial customers, but these can be mitigated through phased pilots, transparent pricing and partner-aligned guarantees.

Market Opportunity

Kill hold windows in affiliate payouts — simplify settlements and clawbacks targets a $6.0B = 500K mid-market merchants x $12K ACV (affiliate/partner settlement software) total addressable market with medium saturation and a year-over-year growth rate of 10% CAGR in partner/affiliate program tooling and payout services.

Key trends driving demand: Creator & affiliate economy expansion -- more businesses run partner programs, increasing demand for scalable settlement infrastructure.; Real-time payout rails -- instant ACH/RTP and card payouts reduce need for conservative hold windows if risk is managed.; Privacy & attribution changes -- walled-garden attribution shifts push partners to rely on transparent financial settlements rather than opaque metrics.; AI-driven fraud & reversal prediction -- improved forecasts mean smaller reserves and fewer long holds, lowering capital friction..

Key competitors include Impact.com, PartnerStack, Everflow, Stripe Connect (adjacent solution), Manual/in-house + spreadsheets (adjacent workaround).

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Kill hold windows in affiliate payouts — simplify settlements and clawbacks

Executive Summary

Market Validation

Market Opportunity

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