Executive Summary

Households installing solar and batteries—especially developed-market “prosumers”—struggle to size systems and pick between complex time‑of‑use and dynamic tariffs, often ending up with suboptimal ROI or unnecessary expenditures. Installers and retailers also face growing uncertainty as EVs and heat pumps increase load variability and falling battery costs make retrofits more common. Build a SaaS platform that ingests smart‑meter data, local irradiance and temperature, appliance/EV load profiles and retailer tariff schedules to run high‑fidelity simulations that recommend PV and battery sizes, tariff plans, and clear payback comparisons. Monetize via a $150 average annual contract (aligned with the $4.5B TAM of 30M households × $150 ACV), plus white‑label APIs and per‑project advisory fees for installers and utilities. The market is attractive now because residential electrification, tariff innovation and lower battery prices all increase the value of accurate sizing and tariff optimization, supporting the estimated $4.5B addressable market and a market score of 88/100. Competition is medium, so a well‑executed product that credibly ties simulation to real tariffs and installer workflows can capture meaningful share and justifies the revenue potential score of 78/100. You can stand out by prioritizing data fidelity (smart‑meter integrations, dynamic tariff ingestion, local weather), validated battery degradation and EV charging models, and tight installer/retailer integrations to lower perceived risk and CAC. The main challenges are data access, regulatory/tariff heterogeneity across markets and go‑to‑market execution, but a B2B2C distribution through installers and retailers can substantially mitigate those risks.

Market Opportunity

Optimize residential solar & battery sizing and tariff choice targets a $4.5B = 30M target households × $150 annual ACV (global developed-market prosumers for sizing/tariff tools) total addressable market with medium saturation and a year-over-year growth rate of 15% YoY (residential solar + storage CAGR, multiple industry reports including Wood Mackenzie/IEA 2023-2025 forecasts).

Key trends driving demand: Residential electrification — EVs and heat pumps are increasing household electricity consumption variability, creating value for tools that optimize generation and storage sizing.; Falling battery costs — lower hardware prices make retrofitting additional storage more attractive, increasing demand for sizing and ROI calculators.; Smart meter and tariff innovation — retailers offer complex time-of-use and dynamic tariffs, which increases the need for simulation-based tariff comparisons.; Data availability — open APIs, smart meter exports and satellite/irradiance datasets make accurate local modelling feasible for consumer products..

Key competitors include EnergySage, Octopus Energy (Kraken + analytics), PVOutput / NREL PVWatts (tools).

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Optimize residential solar & battery sizing and tariff choice

Executive Summary

Market Validation

Market Opportunity

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