Executive Summary

Trade compliance officers, supply-chain managers and enterprise logistics teams are grappling with an increase in sanctions, port closures and policy-driven trade disruptions; current processes are largely reactive, manual and siloed, producing fines, rerouting costs and multiday delays that can range from tens of thousands to millions per incident. The pain is acute at large enterprises that move high-value goods and need to translate policy changes into operational actions in hours, not days. Build a B2B SaaS platform that fuses AI-driven forecasts from unstructured global intelligence (news, filings, social signals) with real-time geopolitical alerts to produce probabilistic disruption scores, recommended remediation steps and integrated workflows that push actions into ERP/TMS and carrier systems. Offer a subscription model (targeting the $50k ACV segment) with tiered capabilities and a services-led onboarding track for conservative enterprise buyers. The market is attractive now: estimated TAM of $6.0B (120,000 target enterprises × $50k ACV) with strong tailwinds from rising geopolitical fragmentation and rapid digitization of logistics—market score 88/100 and revenue potential 82/100 reflect these dynamics. AI-enabled event detection and tighter ERP/TMS integrations reduce friction to adoption, so customer willingness to pay and implementation speed are improving. This can stand out by combining high-precision probabilistic forecasting with turnkey automation into operational systems and a managed-services approach to earn enterprise trust, addressing both signal quality and workflow activation. Key challenges are acquiring reliable ground truth to calibrate models, minimizing false positives from noisy sources, and competing in a medium-competition space where incumbents offer narrower alerting or consultancy services.

Market Opportunity

Predictive trade-risk platform combining AI forecasts and geopolitical alerts targets a $6.0B = 120,000 target enterprises × $50,000 ACV (annual software and services spend for trade-risk and supply-chain disruption tools) total addressable market with medium saturation and a year-over-year growth rate of 12% CAGR (supply chain analytics and risk management market, source: MarketsandMarkets/Gartner estimates for supply-chain analytics).

Key trends driving demand: Rising geopolitical fragmentation and sanctions — increase demand for tools that translate policy changes into trade impact.; AI-enabled event detection and forecasting — allows automated, probabilistic disruption scoring from unstructured sources.; Digitalization of logistics and ERP/TMS integrations — reduces friction for embedding proactive remediation within operations.; Shift from advisory spend to SaaS tooling — companies prefer automated predictive tooling over expensive consultants for repeatable risks..

Key competitors include Resilinc, Dataminr, Panjiva (S&P Global).

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Predictive trade-risk platform combining AI forecasts and geopolitical alerts

Executive Summary

Market Validation

Market Opportunity

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