Executive Summary

Many subscription businesses—especially SMBs and mid-market firms—lose 5–10% (and in some categories up to 20–30%) of recurring revenue to involuntary churn caused by failed payments, card expiry, and poor dunning workflows; this is a measurable, recurring leak for companies with 100–100,000 subscribers. Across an estimated 10 million subscription-enabled businesses, that gap translates to roughly $25.0B in annual recoverable revenue at an average of $2,500 per business, so the economic problem and the buyer set are well-defined and addressable. The product would be an automated dunning and retry orchestration platform that combines connector-first integrations with processors (Stripe, Adyen, etc.), real-time webhook orchestration, multi-channel customer outreach (email, SMS, in-app), and ML models that predict issuer responses and optimal retry windows. Key features would include failure-cause classification, card-updater and network token automation, configurable retry orchestration, and a clear ROI dashboard that shows recovered revenue and unit economics; with realistic expectations, targeted pilots could plausibly lift recoveries by 15–35% depending on category and baseline diligence. Building this requires strong processor partnerships, clean training data, PCI-conscious engineering, and procedures for A/B testing and proof-of-value. This market is attractive now because the subscription economy keeps expanding while processor APIs and webhook maturity make deep integrations feasible without custom engineering work, and ML models for payments have matured enough to make predictive retries practical. Competition is moderate: many billing platforms and dunning tools exist, but most lack end-to-end orchestration that combines issuer-response prediction, easy plug-and-play integrations, and a recoverable-revenue KPI that ties directly to customer ROI—so differentiation will hinge on demonstrable lift in pilots, low-friction integrations, transparent pricing (e.g., recovery-share or outcome-based tiers), and the ability to handle compliance and fraud edge-cases; customer acquisition and winning proof-of-concept trials with conservative enterprises remain the primary challenges.

Market Opportunity

Recover lost subscription revenue with automated dunning & AI-powered retries targets a $25.0B = 10M subscription-enabled businesses x $2,500 annual recoverable revenue per business (global opportunity in recoverable recurring revenue & services) total addressable market with medium saturation and a year-over-year growth rate of 15%+ subscription and payments-optimization tooling growth driven by increased subscription adoption.

Key trends driving demand: Subscription-economy expansion -- more companies depend on recurring revenue, magnifying the impact of failed payments.; Processor APIs & webhook maturity -- Stripe, Adyen and others make deep integrations and automated retries feasible without custom work.; ML for payments -- models now predict issuer responses and optimal retry windows, increasing recovery rates.; Rising payment friction (SCA/PSD2) -- more auth failures create demand for recovery tooling that can handle nuance..

Key competitors include Churn Buster, Stripe Billing (Smart Retries & Automated Collection tools), Chargebee, Recurflux, DIY / Billing-platform native workarounds.

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Recover lost subscription revenue with automated dunning & AI-powered retries

Executive Summary

Market Validation

Market Opportunity

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