Executive Summary

Failed card payments are a persistent, high-dollar problem for subscription businesses: across an estimated 2,000,000 subscription merchants the industry has roughly $8.0B of recoverable lost revenue at about $4,000 per merchant per year. Merchants from SaaS to membership services face involuntary churn when cards expire, banks decline, or billing details change, and many lack automated, effective retry logic and attribution to measure recoveries. You could build a Stripe-native recovery service that orchestrates intelligent retry schedules, automated card-update flows, multi-channel dunning (email/SMS/in-app), and real-time analytics through a lightweight API and dashboard, sold primarily on a performance-based fee. The product would leverage Stripe Billing, webhooks, and Radar signals, expose A/B testing controls for retry strategies, and minimize PCI scope so merchants can install and see results quickly. This is an attractive moment because subscription adoption is expanding, Stripe’s platformization lowers integration friction, and merchants increasingly prefer pay-for-performance—reflected in market scores (92/100) and high revenue potential (94/100). With $8.0B of estimated recoverable revenue, even a 5–10% uplift in recovery rates yields meaningful ROI for merchants and a clear commercial case for a performance-priced product. You can differentiate through deeper Stripe integration, merchant-level machine learning tuned for SMB and mid-market cohorts, and transparent incremental-attribution reporting that proves value. Be honest about challenges: competition is medium, proving incrementality against native Stripe retries is nontrivial, and onboarding friction and compliance must be minimized to scale.

Market Opportunity

Reduce subscription churn by automatically retrying failed Stripe payments targets a $8.0B = 2,000,000 subscription merchants x $4,000 average recoverable lost revenue/year total addressable market with medium saturation and a year-over-year growth rate of 12% (subscription economy & payments tooling growth).

Key trends driving demand: Subscription expansion -- more businesses use recurring billing, increasing the absolute value of failed-charge recovery.; Embedded payments & Stripe platformization -- richer APIs and developer adoption lower integration friction for recovery tools.; Performance-based pricing -- merchants prefer pay-for-performance, improving conversion vs fixed SaaS fees.; AI/Personalization in billing -- ML-driven timing and message personalization increases recovery rates vs one-size-fits-all dunning..

Key competitors include Churn Buster, Stripe Billing (native dunning), Recurly, ProfitWell (Retain) / Baremetrics (adjacent).

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Reduce subscription churn by automatically retrying failed Stripe payments

Executive Summary

Market Validation

Market Opportunity

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