Executive Summary

Creators and small brands—roughly 10 million globally—now moving to federated platforms like Mastodon and Bluesky face a concrete measurement gap: follow/unfollow events and retention signals are distributed across thousands of instances, so audience health, churn, and cohort retention are effectively invisible compared with centralized platforms. That lack of visibility prevents creators from optimizing content, subscriptions, and re-engagement strategies the way they could on Twitter or Instagram. You could build a privacy-first cross-instance analytics service that aggregates opt-in signals (ActivityPub events, instance webhooks, OAuth-connected accounts) and produces standardized retention metrics: daily/weekly churn, cohort LTV, re-engagement funnels, and unfollow spike alerts. Deliver lightweight instance plugins and client-side SDKs to improve signal fidelity where policies permit, provide CSV and portable exports to respect data ownership, and offer tiered pricing from individual creators to small brands—anchoring ARPU around $120/year to align with a $1.2B addressable market. Expose APIs for subscription platforms and CRM integrations so retention insights can directly power monetization and support automated actions. This market is attractive now because decentralization growth and creator economy maturation are converging: the market score is 90/100 with revenue potential rated 88/100, and there is a clear unmet need as more creators demand analytics parity. Competition is low, which is an advantage, but the real challenges are technical and trust-related—fragmented ActivityPub implementations, rate limits, and varying instance policies mean signal gaps are inevitable, and success requires transparent, auditable data flows and strong instance partnerships. The differentiators are a strict privacy-respecting architecture, open tooling for instance admins to verify behavior, and clear ROI metrics for creators; these strengths can win early adopters, but plan for nontrivial engineering work and a measured go-to-market to build trust.

Market Opportunity

Track Fediverse unfollows & retention via cross-instance analytics targets a $1.2B = 10M social creators & small brands x $120 ARPU/year (global creator analytics market expansion to decentralized platforms) total addressable market with low saturation and a year-over-year growth rate of 35%+ adoption growth in decentralized social platform usage and creator monetization tools.

Key trends driving demand: Decentralization growth -- more users migrate to Mastodon/Bluesky, creating demand for cross-instance analytics and parity with centralized platform features.; Creator economy maturation -- creators monetize deeper and expect professional analytics and retention tools to optimize audience growth and subscriptions.; Privacy-first tooling -- demand for analytics that respect instance privacy/consent and offer owner-controlled data portability.; Low-barrier AI tooling -- inexpensive models allow automated root-cause analysis of follow/unfollow events and personalized recommendations..

Key competitors include Fedica, Crowdfire, Self-hosted scripts / open-source tools, Hootsuite / Sprout Social (adjacent enterprise tools).

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Track Fediverse unfollows & retention via cross-instance analytics

Executive Summary

Market Validation

Market Opportunity

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