Executive Summary

Many subscription businesses—especially SMBs and mid-market companies—bleed revenue through involuntary churn caused by failed payments, disputes, and card expiration; with roughly 2.0M subscription businesses in the addressable base, a $6K annual ARR per customer implies a $12.0B market for revenue-recovery solutions. Even a 1–3% improvement in recovery rates can be financially material for customers, which is why vendors can justify meaningful pricing while the overall market scores 95/100 and revenue potential 94/100. You could build an AI-driven recovery platform that ingests PSP decline codes and risk metadata, optimizes retry timing and multi-channel communication sequences, and orchestrates card-on-file recovery flows with automated A/B branch-testing so the system personalizes strategies per account. This opportunity is attractive now because the subscription economy is growing, PSPs are exposing richer signals and APIs, and AI personalization—when applied to sequence optimization—can outperform static dunning models; realistic outcomes are incremental recovery lifts of several percentage points that pay back quickly if integration is solid. To stand out, prioritize real-time decisioning, first-party data capture, prebuilt connectors to the top 10 PSPs, and clear ROI dashboards, coupled with a low-friction integration (target under two weeks) and a pay-for-performance pricing option to reduce buyer hesitation. Be honest about challenges: deep PSP integrations and card-network compliance are time-consuming, the competitive landscape is medium with incumbent dunning and PSP-native tools, and success will hinge on rigorous experimentation and enterprise sales execution rather than product buzz alone.

Market Opportunity

Stop hidden churn: AI-driven recovery for failed subscription payments targets a $12.0B = 2.0M subscription businesses x $6K annual ARR for a revenue-recovery product total addressable market with medium saturation and a year-over-year growth rate of 18% (subscription economy + payments tooling adoption).

Key trends driving demand: Subscription economy growth -- more businesses rely on recurring revenue so even small involuntary churn is financially material.; Richer payment signals -- PSPs now surface decline codes and risk metadata that enable smarter retry logic.; AI personalization -- sequence optimization and branch-testing at scale improves recovery rates beyond static dunning.; Issuer/tokenization changes -- increased card turnover and mobile wallet adoption increases failed payments but also creates salvage opportunities..

Key competitors include Churn Buster, Stripe Billing (Smart Retries / Radar integrations), Chargebee, Recurly.

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Stop hidden churn: AI-driven recovery for failed subscription payments

Executive Summary

Market Validation

Market Opportunity

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